I was looking over this IEEE Spectrum survey of famous smart people’s opinions on AI and I just had to laugh at Rodney Brooks' response. Actually, it’s the way he put it that was funny. The sentiment is the exact same that I share on the topic. What’s so funny is that he takes special digs at Ray Kurzweil. I’m in total agreement, having declared Kurzweil a "crazy futurist" back in 2015 (and if I declare someone a crazy futurist, their futurism has to be pretty damn crazy).
I love how he totally deflates this question.
When will we have computers/robots recognizably as intelligent and as conscious as humans?
Not in our lifetimes, not even in Ray Kurzweil’s lifetime, and despite his fervent wishes, just like the rest of us, he will die within just a few decades. It will be well over 100 years before we see this level in our machines. Maybe many hundred years.
Then there’s this sensible answer which basically says that long term prognostication is more of an artform than a science. Still needling Ray!
How will brainlike computers change the world?
Since we won’t have intelligent computers like humans for well over 100 years, we cannot make any sensible projections about how they will change the world, as we don’t understand what the world will be like at all in 100 years. (For example, imagine reading Turing’s paper on computable numbers in 1936 and trying to project out how computers would change the world in just 70 or 80 years.) So an equivalent well-grounded question would have to be something simpler, like “How will computers/robots continue to change the world?” Answer: Within 20 years most baby boomers are going to have robotic devices in their homes, helping them maintain their independence as they age in place. This will include Ray Kurzweil, who will still not be immortal.
And then he takes a jab at Nick Bostrom who is a smart guy and a refreshingly creative contemporary philosopher. However, I also agree with Brooks that Bostrom’s AI squeamishness is premature.
Do you have any qualms about a future in which computers have human-level (or greater) intelligence?
No qualms at all, as the world will have evolved so much in the next 100+ years that we cannot possibly imagine what it will be like, so there is no point in qualming. Qualming in the face of zero facts or understanding is a fun parlor game but generally not useful. And yes, this includes Nick Bostrom.
On the topic of AI taking over a world I’ll still be living in, I too am qualmless.